It is only the second week of January 2026, and the world is already holding its breath. If the events of the last few months are any indication, we are entering one of the most volatile chapters in modern history.

The Caribbean “Interdictions”

The tension began back in September when the United States military began targeting fishing boats off the coast of Venezuela. We were shown videos of these vessels being neutralized with “military precision,” with the administration citing the prevention of Fentanyl trafficking.

But for many, including myself, the math didn’t add up. These were small fishing boats, ill-equipped for open-ocean transit and lacking the fuel capacity to reach U.S. shores without multiple stops. Furthermore, there was no evidence of Fentanyl production in the region, nor did the promised “undeniable proof” ever materialize.

The human cost was devastating, with the death toll estimated between 80 and 100 people. Perhaps most disturbing were reports of a “second strike” on a wreckage where two survivors were seen clinging to debris. In the eyes of many legal and military experts, this wasn't an interdiction—it was an execution.

The End of the “Special Relationship”?

While the Caribbean burned, the chill was felt here at home in Canada. The “special relationship” between our two nations is facing its greatest test.

The U.S. administration has introduced aggressive tariffs, making trade with our largest partner significantly more expensive. While products under CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) have been shielded so far, that agreement is up for review this year. The message from Washington is clear: if the deal doesn't exclusively benefit U.S. jobs and the American economy, it’s headed for the shredder.

The uncertainty reached a fever pitch recently when the American President suggested the annexation of Canada, calling it the potential “51st state.” For a country that has always been tightly integrated with the U.S., hearing our sovereignty discussed as a mere resource grab is chilling.

A New Era of Expansionism

The administration’s “Western Hemisphere” strategy became even clearer last weekend. In a bold military operation, the President of Venezuela and his wife were extracted from their home and brought to the U.S. to face charges from a years-old indictment. Global leaders have condemned the move as a violation of international law, with some calling it a war crime.

It is now evident that the “fishing boat” strikes in September were likely a prelude to a larger play for oil. Venezuela holds the world’s largest reserves of heavy crude—the exact type of oil U.S. refineries need to stay operational without undergoing massive, multi-billion-dollar retrofits.

But the ambition doesn't stop at oil. The administration has now set its sights on Greenland, citing “national security” as a reason to take control of the island. This has created an unprecedented rift within NATO. Other member nations have already hinted at deploying military assets to prevent a U.S. invasion of a fellow member's territory.

The View from 2026

In my sixty-plus years, I have never seen an American executive branch act with such audacity. From the tragic shooting of a mother by an ICE agent in Minneapolis to the threats of seizing sovereign land, the rules of the global game have changed overnight.

For Canadians, 2026 is the year of the “Great Pivot.” We must find new partners and new markets, because the neighbor we once knew has become unpredictable.

I will be following these developments closely as they unfold. The future of global stability may depend on what happens in the next few months.

Cheers,

GP Joa